5.8 Electing a President

Long before any votes, candidates compete in the “invisible primary” for money, staff, endorsements and media attention. Then, from roughly January to June of the election year, each state holds a primary or caucus to choose delegates to its party's national convention.

• Closed primary: only voters registered with the party can vote in its primary.
• Open primary: any registered voter can choose either party's primary ballot.
• Semi-closed primary: party members plus unaffiliated voters can vote, but members of the other party can't.
• Caucus: party members meet in person, discuss candidates and vote, sometimes by standing in groups. Caucuses take more time, so turnout is lower and dominated by committed activists.

States award delegates differently. Democrats award them proportionally to candidates who reach 15 percent; Republicans let states choose, and many use winner-take-all or winner-take-most rules. States have moved their contests earlier to gain influence, called front-loading, so the nominee is often clear by spring. Iowa and New Hampshire have traditionally gone first and drawn huge attention, though parties have adjusted their calendars.

At the national convention in the summer, delegates formally nominate the candidate, the nominee announces a running mate, and the party adopts its platform. Today conventions mainly confirm a result already decided in primaries and serve as a televised kickoff for the general election.

In the fall, nominees campaign mostly in battleground (swing) states, where the outcome is uncertain, rather than in states that reliably favor one party. Debates, advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts peak.

Incumbent presidents often have an advantage: name recognition, a record to run on, the attention of the bully pulpit (2.7) and no need to fight a primary. But a weak economy or unpopular events can make incumbency a liability, as voters judge past performance.

Each state gets electors equal to its House seats plus its two senators, and the Twenty-Third Amendment (1961) gives D.C. three. That's 538 total, so a candidate needs 270, a majority, to win. Forty-eight states and D.C. give all their electors to the statewide popular-vote winner; Maine and Nebraska award some by congressional district. If no candidate gets 270, the House chooses the president, with each state delegation casting one vote (Twelfth Amendment).

Because electors are awarded state by state, winning many states narrowly and losing others by huge margins can produce an Electoral College majority without a national popular-vote majority or even plurality. That happened in 2000 and 2016, and in two 19th-century elections.

Supporters argue that it protects federalism and smaller states, forces candidates to build broad geographic coalitions, supports a stable two-party system and confines disputed recounts to individual states. Critics argue that it can elect the popular-vote loser, gives voters in swing states far more attention than voters elsewhere, and makes some votes count more than others. Changing it would require a constitutional amendment, though some states have joined a compact pledging their electors to the national popular-vote winner if enough states join.