2.7 Population Policies

Antinatalist policies aim to lower birth rates, usually because a government fears population growth will outrun jobs, housing or food.

China's one-child policy is the best-known example. It ran from 1980 to 2015 and limited most urban couples to one child, with exceptions such as some rural families and ethnic minorities. It was enforced through fines, pressure and, in many cases, forced abortions and sterilizations. China allowed two children starting in 2016 and three in 2021, and it now encourages larger families.

Other examples: Singapore's “Stop at Two” campaign in the 1970s used housing and school incentives. India promoted family planning, and during the 1975–77 Emergency millions of sterilizations were carried out, many under coercion, which caused a strong public backlash.

Pronatalist policies aim to raise birth rates, usually in aging countries worried about labor shortages and paying for pensions. Tools include paid parental leave, child allowances, subsidized child care, tax breaks and housing help.

France has long offered generous family benefits and child care. Sweden gives parents 480 days of paid parental leave per child to share. Hungary has exempted mothers of four or more children from income tax for life since 2020, and Russia has paid “maternity capital” to families since 2007. Singapore reversed course in 1987 and began encouraging larger families.

Pronatalist policies usually have modest effects. The costs of raising children, housing prices and the challenge of combining careers with family often matter more than one-time payments. South Korea has spent heavily on incentives, yet its fertility rate is still among the lowest in the world.

Immigration policies control who can move into a country and how many. A quota sets a maximum number of immigrants, sometimes by country of origin. The U.S. Immigration Act of 1924 set national-origin quotas that favored northern and western Europeans; the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 replaced them with a system based on family ties and skills.

A points-based system scores applicants on factors like education, work experience, age and language skills. Canada has used one since 1967, and Australia uses one too. Some countries also run guest worker programs that let people work for a set time without settling permanently (topic 2.11).

• China's one-child policy, together with a cultural preference for sons, contributed to a sex ratio imbalance, with millions more young men than women.
• Sharp drops in births create rapidly aging populations, as China now faces, with fewer workers supporting more retirees.
• Strict limits on immigration can deepen labor shortages in aging countries, while rapid immigration can create political debate over jobs, housing and culture.