Quantitative analysis
Four polls on a ballot measure
- Unit 4
- 4 points
- About 20 minutes
You read data in a table, graph or map, find a pattern or trend, draw a conclusion, and connect the data to a political principle, institution, process or behavior. On the exam: Question 2 of 4 in the free-response section (1 hour 40 minutes for all four, 50% of your score).
The question and its sources
During the same week, four organizations polled likely voters in one state about a proposed ballot measure to create an independent commission to draw the state's legislative districts. Use the table to answer parts A, B, C, and D.
Support for a Proposed Redistricting Commission Among Likely Voters
| Poll | How respondents were selected | Sample size | Support (%) | Oppose (%) | Margin of error (± percentage points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll A | Random sample of likely voters (phone and text) | 400 | 54 | 38 | 4.9 |
| Poll B | Random sample of likely voters (phone and text) | 1,000 | 51 | 42 | 3.1 |
| Poll C | Random sample of likely voters (phone and text) | 2,400 | 49 | 44 | 2.0 |
| Poll D | Readers of a news website who chose to answer an online poll | 12,000 | 68 | 29 | Not reported |
Source: Hypothetical data. Margins of error are for a 95% confidence level.
Suggested time: 20 minutes
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Part (a)
1 pointIdentify the poll with the smallest margin of error.
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Part (b)
1 pointDescribe the relationship between sample size and margin of error shown in Polls A, B, and C.
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Part (c)
1 pointUsing the margins of error, draw a conclusion about whether Polls A, B, and C show that a majority of likely voters support the measure.
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Part (d)
1 pointExplain why Poll D's results are less credible than Poll C's results, even though Poll D has a larger sample.
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