1.4 Democratization

A democratic transition is the shift from authoritarian rule to a regime with competitive elections. Democratic consolidation is the later stage, when democracy becomes “the only game in town”: losers accept results, the military stays out of politics, courts work and civil society is active. A consolidated democracy is unlikely to slide back into authoritarian rule unless a major shock hits.

One common test of consolidation is a peaceful transfer of power between parties. A stronger version asks for two such transfers, which shows that both sides accept losing.

Over time, democratization aims for these changes:

• Elections become more competitive, fair and open.
• Every adult citizen can vote.
• Citizens have more say in how policy is made.
• Government becomes more transparent.
• Civil rights and liberties are protected, and citizens are treated equally.
• The rule of law takes hold.

The PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) and its earlier forms won every presidential election from 1929 to 1994, using patronage, corporatist groups and, at times, fraud. Change came in steps. A 1977 reform added proportional seats so opposition parties could win places in Congress. A disputed 1988 election increased pressure for reform. In 1990 the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) was created, and in 1996 it became independent of the government. In 1997 the PRI lost its majority in the Chamber of Deputies, and in 2000 the PAN candidate won the presidency. The presidency changed parties again in 2012 and 2018. In 2014 the IFE was replaced by the National Electoral Institute (INE).

Nigeria was ruled by the military for most of 1966–1999. After the death of military ruler Sani Abacha in 1998, the military handed power to an elected civilian government under the 1999 constitution, starting the Fourth Republic. In 2015 a sitting president lost and handed over power to the opposition APC, the first such transfer between parties at the federal level. Disputed elections, insecurity and corruption still weaken consolidation.

Election rules can be adjusted to bring more groups into politics: proportional representation, lower vote thresholds, redrawn districts, and gender or ethnic quotas. Mexico's 1977 reform added proportional seats, and later reforms required parity between men and women among candidates (see 4.2).

Corruption works against democratization because it erodes trust in elections and institutions. Independent courts can help by punishing it and protecting rights. Agreement among rival groups on the basic rules, and on economic policy, also helps a transition last.

Democratic backsliding is a slide away from democracy, usually gradual, when elected leaders weaken courts, the press or election rules. Russia in the 1990s had competitive (if chaotic) elections; since 2000 power has been centralized, governors were appointed rather than elected from 2004 to 2012, and opposition parties and media have been squeezed.

Factors that tend to help democracy take root include economic development and a growing middle class, an active civil society, independent electoral bodies and courts, and outside pressure or incentives. Factors that work against it include ethnic or religious conflict, reliance on oil revenue and a military with a history of intervening. China has had no democratic transition at the national level; it allows limited village elections but crushed the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.