1.10 Political Stability

In early 2026 Iran was at war with Israel and the United States, and an airstrike killed its Supreme Leader on 28 February (see 1.6). Older study materials won't reflect this, so check current sources before using Iran's stability as evidence.

State capacity is a government's ability to do what states are supposed to do: control territory, enforce laws, provide services and collect revenue. Political stability means the regime and government can carry on without violent disruption.

Stability is not the same as democracy. An authoritarian regime can be stable for decades, and a democracy can be unstable. A failed state is one that has lost control over much of its territory and can no longer provide basic services or security.

Responses range from building institutions to using force. Mexico deployed the army against cartels from 2006 and created a National Guard in 2019; a 2024 constitutional change placed the National Guard under the Defense Ministry. Supporters say this brings discipline and resources, while critics worry about militarizing policing.

The UK ended decades of violence in Northern Ireland with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which created a power-sharing government. Nigeria has combined military campaigns in the northeast with an amnesty program for Niger Delta militants from 2009. China has relied on heavy security and surveillance in Xinjiang. Russia fought two wars in Chechnya and now relies on a loyal regional leader there.

Governments of every regime type try to limit violent and divisive groups partly to reassure investors. Foreign companies avoid places where contracts and staff aren't safe, so instability costs growth.

Pressure from citizens can also produce new institutions. Nigeria's 2020 #EndSARS protests against police abuse led the government to disband the SARS police unit. In Mexico, years of civic pressure helped create an independent electoral institute in the 1990s.

Countries fight corruption in different ways. China relies on the party's own discipline commission, which answers to party leaders. The UK relies on independent courts, a free press and parliamentary watchdogs.

The Fragile States Index, published by the Fund for Peace, scores states on pressures like security threats, group grievances, economic decline and the legitimacy of the state. A higher score means more fragile. Nigeria usually scores as one of the more fragile of the six course countries, and the UK as the least. Before quoting a specific score, check the year and the source.

Remember that stability can hide weakness. A regime can look stable because it suppresses dissent, and then face sudden unrest when a shock hits, as Russia did during the brief 2023 mutiny.